ON stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Onsemi is a supplier of power semiconductors and sensors focused on the automotive and industrial markets... Show more
Why ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Is Down -16% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- ON Semiconductor (onsemi) shares declined roughly 16% over the past 30 days, falling from about $79.42 on August 18 to $66.60 by the September 16 close.
- The selloff extends a deeper multi-month slide, with the stock down roughly 44% over the past quarter.
- The June announcement of a roughly $7 billion all-stock acquisition of Synaptics (SYNA) triggered a single-day drop of more than 23% and remains the dominant overhang.
- Strong second-quarter results and upbeat AI data center guidance were not enough to offset dilution and integration concerns.
- A September 16 Investor Day that underwhelmed investors, combined with a Federal Reserve rate hike, drove a further 9% single-session decline.
ON Semiconductor (ON) Company Overview and Market Position
ON Semiconductor Corporation, branded as onsemi, is a supplier of power, analog, and sensing semiconductors focused on automotive and industrial end markets. Its portfolio spans silicon carbide (SiC), insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs), power management, and intelligent sensing products used in vehicle electrification, advanced driver-assistance systems, energy infrastructure, industrial automation, and, increasingly, AI data center power delivery. The company operates through its Power Solutions, Advanced Solutions, and Intelligent Sensing groups. Investors follow onsemi closely for its exposure to the electrification of transportation, the buildout of AI data center power infrastructure, and its expanding physical-AI strategy.
ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, ON shares have fallen approximately 16%, moving from a closing price near $79.42 on August 18 to $66.60 by the September 16 close. The decline was not linear: the stock drifted lower through late August before stabilizing in a $70–$76 range in early September, only to break down again on September 16 with a 9% single-session drop.
The 30-day move is part of a much larger pullback. Over the past quarter, ON has declined roughly 44% from mid-June levels near $118. The sharpest leg of that decline came on June 26, when shares fell more than 23% in one day following the Synaptics acquisition announcement. Despite a brief recovery after better-than-expected second-quarter earnings in early August, the stock has continued to grind lower.
What Drove ON Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most significant catalyst of the past month was the company's September 16 Investor Day. Management unveiled its Embedded Power Platform (EPP), a wafer-level architecture integrating silicon, silicon carbide, and gallium nitride, and outlined a potential $213 billion total addressable market by 2030, with Subaru entering a technology engagement to evaluate the platform. However, analysts including Jefferies cited a muted margin outlook and limited near-term financial detail, and the stock fell 9% in a classic "sell the news" reaction.
The same session was compounded by a Federal Reserve decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points—the first increase since 2023—which pressured high-multiple technology and semiconductor names broadly. Earlier in the period, Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $95 from $110 while keeping an Overweight rating, and sentiment remained cautious around the pending Synaptics transaction, which is expected to close in mid-2027 subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
What Drove ON Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The dominant driver of the quarterly decline was the June 25 announcement that onsemi would acquire Synaptics (SYNA) in an all-stock deal valued at roughly $7 billion, with each Synaptics share exchanged for 1.35 onsemi shares. The stock dropped more than 23% the following day as investors weighed roughly 12% equity dilution, a shift in strategic focus, and Synaptics' significant exposure to consumer and wireless markets. TD Cowen downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and cut its target to $110 from $115, while Wells Fargo reiterated a Buy rating and raised its target to $160.
Second-quarter results reported August 3 beat expectations, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.74 versus a $0.72 consensus and revenue of $1.60 billion, up 9.2% year over year. Management guided third-quarter revenue of $1.65–$1.75 billion and EPS of $0.81–$0.93, and said AI data center revenue is expected to more than double in 2026. Even so, the stock's decline continued as valuation concerns and execution risk around the acquisition outweighed solid fundamentals.
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ON Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors will be watching whether the Synaptics transaction clears remaining regulatory and shareholder hurdles and how management communicates integration plans and synergy execution. Progress on the Embedded Power Platform, including sampling timelines and any conversion of evaluation agreements into production contracts, will be another key focus. Upcoming earnings reports will test the company's AI data center growth trajectory, gross margin expansion, and silicon carbide momentum, particularly in automotive and energy infrastructure. Macroeconomic factors, including interest rates and broader semiconductor demand cycles, as well as competitive dynamics with peers such as Texas Instruments (TXN) and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), will also shape sentiment.
Disclaimer
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Momentum Indicator for ON turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ON saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 76 of the 96 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ON just turned positive on August 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where ON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
ON moved above its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +10.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in 225 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
ON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ON entered a downward trend on September 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.080) is normal, around the industry mean (7.811). P/E Ratio (49.444) is within average values for comparable stocks, (160.549). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.169) is also within normal values, averaging (3.705). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.006) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.337) is also within normal values, averaging (44.558).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a manufacturer of semiconductors
Industry Semiconductors